Will a Silver Tsunami Change the 2024 Housing Market?

<article class="post-922170 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry" id="post-922170"><span class="entry-date">January 29, 2024</span><div class="entry-header center-block text-center"><h1 class="entry-title">Will a Silver Tsunami Change the 2024 Housing Market?</h1><div class="shareBlock"><div class="shareTitle">Share</div><div class="shareIcons"><a aria-label="Twitter Share Link" class="twitter solid display-inline-block" data-tracking="Post,Social Post Link Clicked,Twitter" href="http://twitter.com/share?text=Will+a+Silver+Tsunami+Change+the+2024+Housing+Market%3F&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fgilliggroup.com%2Fblog%2Fwill-a-silver-tsunami-change-the-2024-housing-market%2F" target="_blank"><span class="force-hidden">Twitter</span></a>
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</div></div><div class="post-tax post-category"><span></span><a href="../category/realtor-blog/index.html" rel="tag">Realtor Blog</a></div><div class="post-tax post-post_tag"></div></div><div class="entry-content"><div><img alt="Will a Silver Tsunami Change the 2024 Housing Market? Simplifying The Market" decoding="async" loading="lazy" src="https://media.agentaprd.com/sites/222/20240129-Will-a-Silver-Tsunami-Change-the-2024-Housing-Market.webp" style="display: block; margin-bottom: 5px; clear: both; max-width: 100%;" width="358"/>
<p>Have you ever heard the <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/01/19/key-terms-every-homebuyer-should-learn-infographic/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">term</a> “Silver Tsunami” and wondered what it’s all about? If so, that might be because there’s been lot of talk about it online recently. Let’s dive into what it is and why it won’t drastically impact the housing market.</p>
<h4><strong>What Does Silver Tsunami Mean?</strong></h4>
<p>A recent article from<em> HousingWire </em><a href="https://www.housingwire.com/articles/silver-tsunami-could-have-a-bigger-impact-on-2024s-housing-market-analyst/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">calls it</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>“. . . a colloquialism referring to </em><strong><em>aging Americans changing their housing arrangements to accommodate aging</em></strong><em> . . .”</em></p></blockquote>
<p>The thought is that as baby boomers <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2023/12/27/retiring-soon-why-moving-might-be-the-perfect-next-step/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">grow older</a>, a significant number will start <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/01/17/2-reasons-why-todays-mortgage-rate-trend-is-good-for-sellers/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">downsizing</a> their homes. Considering how large that generation is, if these moves happened in a big wave, it would affect the housing market by causing a significant uptick in the number of larger homes for sale. That influx of homes coming onto the market would impact the balance of supply and demand and more.</p>
<p>The concept makes sense in theory, but will it happen? And if so, when? </p>
<h4><strong>Why It Won’t Have a Huge Impact on the Housing Market in 2024</strong></h4>
<p>Experts say, so far, a silver tsunami hasn’t happened – and it probably won’t anytime soon. According to that same <a href="https://www.housingwire.com/articles/silver-tsunami-could-have-a-bigger-impact-on-2024s-housing-market-analyst/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">article</a> from <em>HousingWire</em>:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>“. . . the silver tsunami’s transformative potential for the U.S. housing market </em><strong><em>has not yet materialized in any meaningful way, and few expect it to anytime soon</em></strong><em>.”</em></p></blockquote>
<p>Here’s just one reason why. Many baby boomers don’t want to move.<em> </em><a href="https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/surveys_statistics/liv-com/2021/2021-home-community-preferences-chartbook.doi.10.26419-2Fres.00479.001.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Data</a> from the <em>AARP</em> shows over half of the surveyed adults ages 65 and up plan to stay put and age in place in their current home rather than move (<em>see chart below</em>):</p>
<p><a href="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240125/20240129-60-percent-of-adults-aged-65-expect-to-stay-in-their-home-as-they-get-older.png" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img decoding="async" src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240125/20240129-60-percent-of-adults-aged-65-expect-to-stay-in-their-home-as-they-get-older.png"/></a></p>
<p></p>
<p>Clearly, not every baby boomer is planning to sell or move – and even those who do won’t do it all at once. Instead, it will be more gradual, happening slowly over time. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at <em>First American</em>, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tides-changed-housing-market-experts-113000181.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">says</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>“</em><strong><em>Demographics are never a tsunami.</em></strong><em> The baby boomer generation is almost two decades of births. That means they’re going to take about two decades to work their way through.”</em></p></blockquote>
<h3>Bottom Line</h3>
<p>If you’re worried about a Silver Tsunami shaking up the housing market, don’t be. Any impact from baby boomers moving will be gradual over many years. Fleming <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tides-changed-housing-market-experts-113000181.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">sums</a> it up best:</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>“Demographic trends, they don’t tsunami. They trickle.”</em></p>
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