The Latest Expert Forecasts for Home Prices in 2023

<article class="post-818843 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry" id="post-818843"><span class="entry-date">October 11, 2023</span><div class="entry-header center-block text-center"><h1 class="entry-title">The Latest Expert Forecasts for Home Prices in 2023</h1><div class="shareBlock"><div class="shareTitle">Share</div><div class="shareIcons"><a aria-label="Twitter Share Link" class="twitter solid display-inline-block" data-tracking="Post,Social Post Link Clicked,Twitter" href="http://twitter.com/share?text=The+Latest+Expert+Forecasts+for+Home+Prices+in+2023&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fgilliggroup.com%2Fblog%2Fthe-latest-expert-forecasts-for-home-prices-in-2023%2F" target="_blank"><span class="force-hidden">Twitter</span></a>
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</div></div><div class="post-tax post-category"><span></span><a href="../category/realtor-blog/index.html" rel="tag">Realtor Blog</a></div><div class="post-tax post-post_tag"></div></div><div class="entry-content"><div><img alt="The Latest Expert Forecasts for Home Prices in 2023 Simplifying The Market" decoding="async" loading="lazy" src="https://media.agentaprd.com/sites/222/20231011-The-Latest-Expert-Forecasts-for-Home-Prices-in-2023.webp" style="display: block; margin-bottom: 5px; clear: both; max-width: 100%;" width="358"/>
<p>Are you thinking about <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2023/08/14/where-are-people-moving-today-and-why/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">making a move</a>? If so, all the speculation that <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2023/09/26/the-return-of-normal-seasonality-for-home-price-appreciation/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">home prices</a> would crash this year may have you feeling a bit on edge about your decision. Let the data and the experts reassure you. Prices aren’t in a downward spiral and will actually finish the year strong.</p>
<p>Even though you may have heard talk that prices would drop 5, 10, or even 20% this year, that hasn’t happened. The big reason why is the <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2023/09/27/why-todays-housing-inventory-shows-a-crash-isnt-on-the-horizon/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">supply of homes</a> for sale is too low. There are just <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2023/09/15/plenty-of-buyers-are-still-active-today-infographic/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">more buyers</a> looking to buy than <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2023/09/14/why-is-housing-inventory-so-low/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">homes available</a>, and that’s kept prices from falling.</p>
<p>To prove this year wasn’t a bust for <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2023/09/12/what-experts-project-for-home-prices-over-the-next-5-years/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">home prices</a>, let’s look at the latest 2023 forecast from a number of experts.</p>
<h4><strong>Most Experts Project Home Prices Will Net Positive this Year</strong></h4>
<p>The general consensus from industry experts is that home <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2023/09/05/expert-home-price-forecasts-revised-up-for-2023/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">price appreciation</a> will actually be positive for 2023. The graph below shows the latest 2023 year-end forecasts from six different organizations:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/content/images/20231005/20231011-2023-Year-End-Home-Price-Forecasts.png?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img decoding="async" src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/content/images/20231005/20231011-2023-Year-End-Home-Price-Forecasts.png"/></a></p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>As you can see, all but one project nationally prices will net positive this year. That’s significant because it shows the majority are optimistic about home price growth.</strong></p>
<p>If you’re still worried about the one red bar that shows an overall price drop for the year, think about this. The <a href="https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-q3-2023-us-economic-outlook-07-27-2023.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">projection</a> from the <em>National Association of Realtors </em>(NAR) is for only a slight decline. It’s not the big crash all the headlines called for. Plus, if you average all six forecasts together, the expectation is that prices will net somewhere around 3.3% positive growth for the year.</p>
<p>If these 6 organizations aren’t enough to convince you that prices won’t come tumbling down, here’s something else to consider. One of the six forecasts represented in the graph is the <a href="https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><em>Home Price Expectation Survey</em></a> (HPES) from <em>Pulsenomics. </em>It combines survey results from over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts. The HPES found that the average from all 100 of those experts is 3.3% price growth for the year.</p>
<p>If you look back at the graph above, you’ll notice the blue average for the forecasts in this graph is also 3.3%. While individual forecasts may vary, both the HPES survey and the average of these forecasts provide the same projection. And 3.3% appreciation is a completely different story than prices falling.</p>
<h3>Bottom Line</h3>
<p><span style="color: black;">If you’re worried about home prices falling this year, let the experts reassure you. Based on the average of the latest forecasts, home prices will actually show positive growth this year. If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices in your area, connect with a real estate agent.</span></p>
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