Housing Market Forecast: What’s Ahead for the 2nd Half of 2024

<article class="post-1097053 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry" id="post-1097053"><span class="entry-date">June 24, 2024</span><div class="entry-header center-block text-center"><h1 class="entry-title">Housing Market Forecast: What’s Ahead for the 2nd Half of 2024</h1><div class="shareBlock"><div class="shareTitle">Share</div><div class="shareIcons"><a aria-label="Twitter Share Link" class="twitter solid display-inline-block" data-tracking="Post,Social Post Link Clicked,Twitter" href="http://twitter.com/share?text=Housing+Market+Forecast%3A+What%E2%80%99s+Ahead+for+the+2nd+Half+of+2024&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fgilliggroup.com%2Fblog%2Fhousing-market-forecast-whats-ahead-for-the-2nd-half-of-2024%2F" target="_blank"><span class="force-hidden">Twitter</span></a>
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</div></div><div class="post-tax post-category"><span></span><a href="../category/realtor-blog/index.html" rel="tag">Realtor Blog</a></div><div class="post-tax post-post_tag"></div></div><div class="entry-content"><div><img alt="Housing Market Forecast: What’s Ahead for the 2nd Half of 2024 Simplifying The Market" decoding="async" loading="lazy" src="https://media.agentaprd.com/sites/222/20240624-Housing-Market-Forecast-What-s-Ahead-for-the-2nd-Half-of-2024-original.webp" style="display: block; margin-bottom: 5px; clear: both; max-width: 100%;" width=""/>
<p>As we move into the <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/05/20/whats-next-for-home-prices-and-mortgage-rates/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">second half of 2024</a>, here’s what experts say you should expect for home prices, mortgage rates, and home sales.</p>
<h4><strong>Home Prices Are Expected To Climb Moderately</strong></h4>
<p><a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/06/12/home-prices-arent-declining-but-headlines-might-make-you-think-they-are/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Home prices</a> are forecasted <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/05/13/home-prices-are-climbing-in-these-top-cities/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">to rise</a> at a more normal pace. The graph below shows the latest forecasts from seven of the most trusted sources in the industry:</p>
<p><a href="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240621/20240624-2024-Home-Price-Forecasts-1-original.png" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img alt="No Caption Received" decoding="async" src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240621/20240624-2024-Home-Price-Forecasts-1-original.png"/></a></p>
<p>The reason for continued appreciation? The supply of homes for sale. Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist at the <em>National Association of Realtors</em> (NAR), <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-experts-revise-mortgage-rate-forecasts-for-remainder-of-2024-113354358.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">explains</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>“One thing that seems to be pretty solid is that home prices are going to continue to go up, </em><strong><em>and the reason is that we don’t have housing inventory</em></strong><em>.”</em></p></blockquote>
<p>While <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/05/16/the-number-of-homes-for-sale-is-increasing/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">inventory is up</a> compared to the last couple of years, it’s still low overall. And because there still aren’t enough homes to go around, that’ll keep upward pressure on prices.</p>
<p>If you’re <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/06/11/savings-strategies-every-first-time-homebuyer-needs-to-know/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">thinking of buying</a>, the good news is you won’t have to deal with prices skyrocketing like they did during the pandemic. Just remember, prices aren’t expected to drop. They’ll continue climbing, just at a slower pace.</p>
<p>So, getting into the market sooner rather than later could still save you money in the long run. Plus, you can feel confident experts say your home will <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/06/07/the-wealth-building-power-of-homeownership-infographic/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">grow in value</a> after you <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/05/27/how-va-loans-can-help-you-buy-a-home/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">buy</a> it.</p>
<h4><strong>Mortgage Rates Are Forecast To Come Down Slightly</strong></h4>
<p>One of the best pieces of news for both buyers and sellers is that mortgage rates are expected to come down a bit, according to <a href="https://www.fanniemae.com/media/51391/display" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><em>Fannie Mae</em></a>, the <a href="https://img03.en25.com/Web/MortgageBankersAssociation/%7B7e604828-7f2c-4117-a76f-fe8f3e6bdafc%7D_Mortgage_Finance_Forecast_May_2024.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><em>Mortgage Bankers Association</em></a> (MBA), and <a href="https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-q2-2024-us-economic-outlook-04-25-2024.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">NAR</a> (<em>see chart below</em>):</p>
<p><a href="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240621/20240624-Mortgage-Rate-Projections-1-original.png" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img alt="No Caption Received" decoding="async" src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240621/20240624-Mortgage-Rate-Projections-1-original.png"/></a>When you <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/06/03/more-than-a-house-the-emotional-benefits-of-homeownership/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">buy</a>, even a small drop in mortgage rates can make a big difference in your monthly payments. For <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/05/29/how-an-agent-helps-market-your-house/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">sellers</a>, lower rates will bring more buyers back into the market, which can help you <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/05/23/questions-you-may-have-about-selling-your-house/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">sell</a> faster and potentially at a <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/06/06/your-equity-could-make-a-move-possible/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">higher price</a>. Plus, it may help you get off the fence, if you’ve been hesitant to sell due to today’s rates.</p>
<h4><strong>Home Sales Are Projected To Hold Steady</strong></h4>
<p>For 2024, the number of home sales will be about the same as last year and may even rise slightly. The graph below compares the 2024 home sales forecasts from <a href="https://www.fanniemae.com/media/51616/display" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><em>Fannie Mae</em></a>, <a href="https://img03.en25.com/Web/MortgageBankersAssociation/%7B7e604828-7f2c-4117-a76f-fe8f3e6bdafc%7D_Mortgage_Finance_Forecast_May_2024.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">MBA</a>, and <a href="https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-q2-2024-us-economic-outlook-04-25-2024.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">NAR</a> to the 4.8 million homes that sold last year:</p>
<p><a href="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240621/20240624-2024-Total-Home-Sales-Forecasts-vs-2023-1-original.png" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img alt="No Caption Received" decoding="async" src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240621/20240624-2024-Total-Home-Sales-Forecasts-vs-2023-1-original.png"/></a></p>
<p>The average of the three forecasts is about 5 million sales in 2024 – a small increase from 2023. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, <a href="https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-ascended-3-4-in-march" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">explains why</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>“Job gains, steady mortgage rates and the release of inventory from pent-up home sellers will lead to more sales.”</em></p></blockquote>
<p>With more inventory available and mortgage rates expected to go down, a few more homes are expected to be sold this year compared to last year. This means more people will be able to move. Let’s work together to make sure you’re one of them.</p>
<h3>Bottom Line</h3>
<p>If you have any <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/06/04/what-to-expect-if-you-buy-or-sell-a-home-this-june/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">questions</a> or need help <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/06/10/selling-smart-why-a-real-estate-agent-makes-all-the-difference/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">navigating the market</a>, reach out to a local real estate agent.</p>
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