Expert Home Price Forecasts for 2024 Revised Up

<article class="post-947037 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry" id="post-947037"><span class="entry-date">February 22, 2024</span><div class="entry-header center-block text-center"><h1 class="entry-title">Expert Home Price Forecasts for 2024 Revised Up</h1><div class="shareBlock"><div class="shareTitle">Share</div><div class="shareIcons"><a aria-label="Twitter Share Link" class="twitter solid display-inline-block" data-tracking="Post,Social Post Link Clicked,Twitter" href="http://twitter.com/share?text=Expert+Home+Price+Forecasts+for+2024+Revised+Up&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fgilliggroup.com%2Fblog%2Fexpert-home-price-forecasts-for-2024-revised-up%2F" target="_blank"><span class="force-hidden">Twitter</span></a>
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</div></div><div class="post-tax post-category"><span></span><a href="../category/realtor-blog/index.html" rel="tag">Realtor Blog</a></div><div class="post-tax post-post_tag"></div></div><div class="entry-content"><div><img alt="Expert Home Price Forecasts for 2024 Revised Up Simplifying The Market" decoding="async" loading="lazy" src="https://media.agentaprd.com/sites/222/Header-Image-20220524-Blog.webp" style="display: block; margin-bottom: 5px; clear: both; max-width: 100%;" width="358"/>
<p>Over the past few months, experts have revised their 2024 home price <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/01/23/experts-project-home-prices-will-increase-in-2024/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">forecasts</a> based on the latest data and market signals, and they’re even more confident prices will rise, not fall.</p>
<p>So, let’s see exactly how experts’ thinking has shifted – and what’s caused the change.</p>
<h4><strong>2024 Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now</strong></h4>
<p>The chart below <a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/us-home-prices-forecast-to-climb-as-mortgage-rates-fall-in-2024.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">shows</a> what seven expert organizations <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/forecasts-and-commentary/mortgage-finance-forecast-archives" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">think</a> will happen to home <a href="https://www.zillow.com/research/2024-housing-predictions-33447" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">prices</a> in 2024. It compares their first 2024 home price <a href="https://www.fanniemae.com/media/50096/display" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">forecasts</a> (made at the end of 2023) with their newest <a href="https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20240122-us-economy-continues-expand" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">projections</a>:</p>
<p> <a href="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240220/20240222-2024-Home-Price-Forecasts.png" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img alt="a blue and white graph with text" decoding="async" src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240220/20240222-2024-Home-Price-Forecasts.png"/></a></p>
<p></p>
<p>The middle column shows that, at first, these <a href="https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveys-indices/home-price-expectations-survey-hpes" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">experts</a> thought home prices would only go up a little this year. But if you look at the column on the right, you’ll see they’ve all updated their <a href="https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-q1-2024-us-economic-outlook-01-26-2024.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">forecasts</a> and now think prices will go up more than they originally thought. And some of the differences are major.</p>
<p>There are two big factors keeping such strong upward pressure on home prices. The first is how few homes are for sale right now. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/housing-market-predictions-2024" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">According</a> to <em>Business Insider</em>:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>“</em><strong><em>Low home inventory is a chronic problem in the US.</em></strong><em> This has generally kept home prices up . . .”</em></p></blockquote>
<p>A lack of housing inventory has been pushing <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/02/15/dont-let-the-latest-home-price-headlines-confuse-you/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">prices</a> up for a long time now – and that’s not expected to change dramatically this year. But what has changed a bit is <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/02/12/whats-really-happening-with-mortgage-rates/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">mortgage rates</a>.</p>
<p>Late last year when most housing market experts were calling for home prices to rise only a little bit in 2024, <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/01/30/2-of-the-factors-that-impact-mortgage-rates/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">mortgage rates</a> were up and buyer demand was more moderate.</p>
<p>Now that rates have come down from their peak last October, and with <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2023/12/20/why-mortgage-rates-could-continue-to-decline/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">further declines</a> expected over the course of the year, buyer demand has picked up. That increase in demand, along with an ongoing lack of inventory, is what’s caused the experts to feel the upward pressure on prices will be stronger than they expected a couple months ago.</p>
<h4><strong>A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Forecast Revisions</strong></h4>
<p>Real estate experts regularly revise their home price forecasts as the housing market shifts. It’s a normal part of their job that ensures their projections are always up-to-date and factor in the latest changes in the housing market.</p>
<p>That means they’ll continue to revise their projections as the housing market changes, just as they’ve always done. How those forecasts change next is anyone’s guess, but pay attention to <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/01/17/2-reasons-why-todays-mortgage-rate-trend-is-good-for-sellers/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">mortgage rates</a>.</p>
<p>If they trend down as the year goes on, as they’re expected to do, that could lead to more buyer demand and even higher home price forecasts.</p>
<p><strong>Basically, it’s all about supply and demand. With supply still so limited, anything that causes demand to go up will likely cause prices to go up, too.</strong></p>
<h3>Bottom Line</h3>
<p>At first, experts believed <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2024/01/12/home-prices-forecast-to-climb-over-the-next-5-years-infographic/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">home prices</a> would only go up a little this year. But now, they’ve changed their minds and forecast prices will grow even more than they originally thought. Connect with a local real estate agent so you know what to expect with prices in your area.</p>
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