Are We in a Housing Bubble? Experts Say No.

<article class="post-2245 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry" id="post-2245"><span class="entry-date">July 1, 2021</span><div class="entry-header center-block text-center"><h1 class="entry-title">Are We in a Housing Bubble? Experts Say No.</h1><div class="shareBlock"><div class="shareTitle">Share</div><div class="shareIcons"><a aria-label="Twitter Share Link" class="twitter solid display-inline-block" data-tracking="Post,Social Post Link Clicked,Twitter" href="http://twitter.com/share?text=Are+We+in+a+Housing+Bubble%3F+Experts+Say+No.&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fgilliggroup.com%2Fblog%2Fare-we-in-a-housing-bubble-experts-say-no%2F" target="_blank"><span class="force-hidden">Twitter</span></a>
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<p>The question of whether the real estate market is a bubble ready to pop seems to be dominating a lot of conversations – and everyone has an opinion. Yet, when it comes down to it, the opinions that carry the most weight are the ones based on experience and expertise.<span id="more-44647"></span></p>
<p>Here are four expert opinions from professionals and organizations that have devoted their careers to giving great advice to the housing industry.</p>
<p><em>The Joint Center for Housing Studies</em> in their <em><a href="https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/reports/files/Harvard_JCHS_State_Nations_Housing_2021.pdf">The State of the Nation’s Housing 2021</a></em> report:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>“… conditions today are quite <strong>different than in the early 2000s</strong>, particularly in terms of credit availability. The <strong>current climb in house prices instead reflects strong demand amid tight supply</strong>, helped along by record-low interest rates.”</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/us-home-prices-keep-racing-ahead-with-risks-upside-2021-05-24/">Nathaniel Karp</a>, Chief U.S. Economist at <em>BBVA</em>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>“The housing market is in line with fundamentals as interest rates are attractive and incomes are high due to fiscal stimulus, making debt servicing relatively affordable and allowing buyers to qualify for larger mortgages. <strong>Underwriting standards are still strong, so there is little risk of a bubble developing</strong>.”</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/us-housing-market-records/619029/">Bill McBride</a> of <em>Calculated Risk</em>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>“It’s not clear at all to me that things are going to slow down significantly in the near future. <strong>In 2005, I had a strong sense that the hot market would turn</strong> and that, when it turned, things would get very ugly. <strong>Today, I don’t have that sense at al</strong>l, because all of the fundamentals are there. Demand will be high for a while, because Millennials need houses. Prices will keep rising for a while, because inventory is so low.”</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://blog.firstam.com/economics/house-prices-are-hot-but-is-housing-overvalued">Mark Fleming</a>, Chief Economist at <em>First American</em>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>“<strong>Looking back at the bubble years, house prices exceeded house-buying power</strong> in 2006 nationally, but <strong>today house-buying power is nearly twice as high as the median sale price </strong>nationally…</em></p>
<p><em>Many find it hard to believe, but housing is actually undervalued in most markets and <strong>the gap between house-buying power and sale prices indicates there’s room for further house price growth</strong> in the months to come.”</em></p>
</blockquote>
<h3><strong>Bottom Line</strong></h3>
<p>All four strongly believe that we’re not in a bubble and won’t see crashing home values as we did in 2008. And <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2021/05/11/experts-say-home-prices-will-continue-to-appreciate/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2">they’re not alone</a> – <em>Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Merrill Lynch </em>share the same opinion.</p>
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