What’s Ahead for Home Prices?

<article class="post-501300 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry" id="post-501300"><span class="entry-date">October 20, 2022</span><div class="entry-header center-block text-center"><h1 class="entry-title">What’s Ahead for Home Prices?</h1><div class="shareBlock"><div class="shareTitle">Share</div><div class="shareIcons"><a aria-label="Twitter Share Link" class="twitter solid display-inline-block" data-tracking="Post,Social Post Link Clicked,Twitter" href="http://twitter.com/share?text=What%E2%80%99s+Ahead+for+Home+Prices%3F&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fgilliggroup.com%2Fblog%2Fwhats-ahead-for-home-prices%2F" target="_blank"><span class="force-hidden">Twitter</span></a>
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<p><img alt="What’s Ahead for Home Prices? | Simplifying The Market" class="webfeedsFeaturedVisual wp-post-image" decoding="async" link_thumbnail="" loading="lazy" sizes="auto, (max-width: 549px) 100vw, 549px" src="https://files.simplifyingthemarket.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/19093207/20221020-KCM-Share-549×300.jpg" srcset="https://files.simplifyingthemarket.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/19093207/20221020-KCM-Share-549×300.jpg 549w, https://files.simplifyingthemarket.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/19093207/20221020-KCM-Share.jpg 750w" style="display: block; margin-bottom: 5px; clear:both;max-width: 100%;" width="358"/></p>
<p>As the <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2022/10/11/what-are-experts-saying-about-the-fall-housing-market/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2">housing market</a> cools in response to the dramatic rise in <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2022/10/04/the-cost-of-waiting-for-mortgage-rates-to-go-down/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2">mortgage rates</a>, home price appreciation is cooling as well. And if you’re following along with headlines in the media, you’re probably seeing a wide range of opinions calling for everything from falling home prices to ongoing appreciation. <em>But what’s true? What’s most likely to happen moving forward? </em><span id="more-47327"></span></p>
<p>While opinions differ, the most likely outcome is we’ll fall somewhere in the middle of slight appreciation and slight depreciation. Here’s a look at the latest expert projections so you have the best information possible today.</p>
<h4><strong>What the Experts Are Saying About Home Prices Next Year</strong></h4>
<p>The graph below shows the most up-to-date forecasts from five experts in the housing industry. These are the experts that have most recently updated their projections based on current market trends:</p>
<p><a href="https://files.simplifyingthemarket.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/19093208/20221020-MEM-Eng-1-1.png"><img alt="What’s Ahead for Home Prices? | Simplifying The Market" class="aligncenter wp-image-47329" decoding="async" height="488" loading="lazy" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" src="https://files.simplifyingthemarket.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/19093208/20221020-MEM-Eng-1-1.png" srcset="https://files.simplifyingthemarket.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/19093208/20221020-MEM-Eng-1-1.png 960w, https://files.simplifyingthemarket.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/19093208/20221020-MEM-Eng-1-1-400×300.png 400w" width="650"/></a></p>
<p>As the graph shows, the three blue bars represent experts calling for ongoing home price appreciation, just at a more moderate rate than recent years. The red bars on the graph are experts calling for home price depreciation.</p>
<p><strong>While there isn’t a clear consensus, if you take the average <em>(shown in green)</em> of all five of these forecasts, the most likely outcome is, nationally, home price appreciation will be fairly flat next year.</strong></p>
<h4><strong>What Does This Mean?</strong></h4>
<p>Basically, experts are divided on what’s ahead for 2023. Home prices will likely depreciate slightly in some markets and will continue to gain ground in others. It all depends on the conditions in your local market, like how overheated that market was in recent years, current inventory levels, buyer demand, and more.</p>
<p>The good news is home prices are expected to return to more normal levels of appreciation rather quickly. The latest <a href="https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/links2/html/429eb828-b17e-4e47-8856-4ff59f9d3d1a">forecast</a> from <em>Wells Fargo</em> shows that, while they feel prices will fall in 2023, they think prices will recover and net positive in 2024. That forecast calls for 3.1% appreciation in 2024, which is a number much more in line with the long-term average of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2022/08/30/housing-prices-are-dropping—yes-a-house-is-still-a-good-investment/?sh=54fdefd17372">4%</a> annual appreciation.</p>
<p>And the <a href="https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations"><em>Home Price Expectation Survey</em></a> (HPES) from <em>Pulsenomics</em>, a poll of over one hundred industry experts, also calls for ongoing appreciation of roughly 2.6 to 4% from 2024-2026. This goes to show, even if prices decline slightly next year, it’s not expected to be a lasting trend.</p>
<p>As Jason Lewris, Co-Founder and Chief Data Officer for <em>Parcl,</em> <a href="https://www.parcllabs.com/articles/q3-real-estate">says</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>“In the absence of trustworthy, up-to-date information, real estate decisions are increasingly being driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.”</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Don’t let fear or uncertainty change your plans. If you’re unsure about where prices are headed or how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, reach out to a local real estate professional for the guidance you need each step of the way.</p>
<h3><strong>Bottom Line</strong></h3>
<p>The housing market is shifting, and it’s a confusing place right now. Let’s connect so you have a trusted real estate professional to help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening in our market.</p>
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