Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023

<article class="post-790094 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry" id="post-790094"><span class="entry-date">September 5, 2023</span><div class="entry-header center-block text-center"><h1 class="entry-title">Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023</h1><div class="shareBlock"><div class="shareTitle">Share</div><div class="shareIcons"><a aria-label="Twitter Share Link" class="twitter solid display-inline-block" data-tracking="Post,Social Post Link Clicked,Twitter" href="http://twitter.com/share?text=Expert+Home+Price+Forecasts+Revised+Up+for+2023&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fgilliggroup.com%2Fblog%2Fexpert-home-price-forecasts-revised-up-for-2023%2F" target="_blank"><span class="force-hidden">Twitter</span></a>
<div class="fb-share-button display-inline-block" data-href="https://gilliggroup.com/blog/expert-home-price-forecasts-revised-up-for-2023/" data-layout="" data-size=""><a class="facebook solid fb-xfbml-parse-ignore" data-tracking="Post,Social Post Link Clicked,Twitter" href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fgilliggroup.com%2Fblog%2Fexpert-home-price-forecasts-revised-up-for-2023%2F&amp;src=sdkpreparse" target="_blank"><span class="force-hidden">Facebook</span></a></div>
<a class="pinterest solid display-inline-block" count-layout="horizontal" href="https://pinterest.com/pin/create/link/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgilliggroup.com%2Fblog%2Fexpert-home-price-forecasts-revised-up-for-2023%2F&amp;description=Expert+Home+Price+Forecasts+Revised+Up+for+2023" target="_blank"><span class="force-hidden">Pinterest</span></a>
<a class="linkedin solid display-inline-block" href="https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&amp;url=https://gilliggroup.com/blog/expert-home-price-forecasts-revised-up-for-2023/?shareSlug%3Dexpert-home-price-forecasts-revised-up-for-2023" target="_blank"><span class="force-hidden">LinkedIn</span></a>
<a class="email dashicons dashicons-email solid display-inline-block" href="mailto:?subject=From gilliggroup.com: Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023&amp;body=Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023%0D%0Dhttps://gilliggroup.com/blog/expert-home-price-forecasts-revised-up-for-2023/" target="_blank"><span class="force-hidden">Email</span></a>
</div></div><div class="post-tax post-category"><span></span><a href="../category/realtor-blog/index.html" rel="tag">Realtor Blog</a></div><div class="post-tax post-post_tag"></div></div><div class="entry-content"><div><img alt="Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023 Simplifying The Market" decoding="async" loading="lazy" src="https://media.agentaprd.com/sites/222/20230905-expert-home-price-forecasts-revised-up-for-2023.webp" style="display: block; margin-bottom: 5px; clear: both; max-width: 100%;" width="358"/>
<p>Toward the end of last year, there were a number of headlines saying <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2023/06/12/are-home-prices-going-up-or-down-that-depends/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">home prices</a> were going to fall substantially in 2023. That led to a lot of fear and questions about whether there was going to be a repeat of the housing crash that happened back in 2008. But the headlines got it wrong.</p>
<p>While there was a slight home price correction after the sky-high price appreciation during the <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2023/05/30/todays-real-estate-market-the-unicorns-have-galloped-off/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">‘unicorn’ years</a>, nationally, <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2023/06/05/oops-home-prices-didnt-crash-after-all/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">home prices</a> didn’t come crashing down. If anything, <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2023/08/11/home-prices-are-back-on-the-rise-infographic/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">prices</a> were a lot more resilient than many people expected.</p>
<p>Let’s take a look at some of the expert forecasts from late last year stacked against their most recent <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2023/08/04/housing-market-forecast-for-the-rest-of-2023-infographic-1/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">forecasts</a> to show that even the experts recognize they were overly pessimistic.</p>
<h4><strong>Expert Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now</strong></h4>
<p>This visual shows the <a href="https://www.zillow.com/research/data/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">2023</a> home price <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/forecasts-and-commentary/mortgage-finance-forecast-archives" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">forecasts</a> from seven <a href="https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/forecast/forecast-monthly-archive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">organizations</a>. It provides the original 2023 forecasts (released in late <a href="https://ustoday.news/a-20-drop-in-house-prices-7-forecast-models-tend-to-crash-here-the-other-13-models-show-the-housing-market-in-2023/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">2022</a>) for what would happen to <a href="https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1671900591113609216" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">home prices</a> by the end of <a href="https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1671556169712672768" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">this year</a> and their most recently <a href="https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1686959362563092480" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">revised</a> 2023 <a href="https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1691799764466008217" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">forecasts</a> (<em>see chart below</em>):</p>
<p><a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/content/images/20230831/20230905-2023-Year-end-home-price-forecasts.png?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img decoding="async" src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/content/images/20230831/20230905-2023-Year-end-home-price-forecasts.png"/></a>As the red in the middle column shows, in all instances, their original forecast called for home prices to fall. But, if you look at the right column, you’ll see all experts have updated their projections for the year-end to show they expect prices to either be flat or have positive growth. That’s a significant change from the original negative numbers.</p>
<p>There are a number of reasons why <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2023/07/17/home-prices-are-rebounding/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">home prices</a> are so resilient to falling. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at <em>First American</em>, <a href="https://blog.firstam.com/economics/the-reconomy-podcast-why-us-homeowners-have-a-big-advantage-in-a-rising-mortgage-rate-environment" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">says</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>“One thing is for sure, having long-term, fixed-rate debt in the U.S. protects homeowners from payment shock, acts as an inflation hedge – your primary household expense doesn’t change when inflation rises – and is a reason why </em><strong><em>home prices in the U.S. are downside sticky.”</em></strong></p></blockquote>
<h4><strong>A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Headlines</strong></h4>
<p>For home prices, you’re going to continue to see misleading media coverage in the months ahead. That’s because there’s <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2023/07/25/dont-fall-for-the-next-shocking-headlines-about-home-prices/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">seasonality</a> to home price appreciation and they’re going to misunderstand that. Here’s what you need to know to get ahead of the next round of negative headlines.</p>
<p>As activity in the housing market slows at the end of this year (as it typically does each year), home price growth will slow too. But, this doesn’t mean prices are falling – it’s just that they’re not increasing as quickly as they were when the market was in the peak homebuying season.</p>
<p><strong>Basically, deceleration of appreciation is not the same thing as home prices depreciating.</strong></p>
<h3>Bottom Line</h3>
<p>The headlines have an impact, even if they’re not true. While the media said home prices would fall significantly in their coverage at the end of last year, that didn’t happen. Connect with a real estate agent so you have a trusted resource to help you separate fact from fiction with reliable data.</p>
</div>
</div></article>