Don’t Expect a Flood of Foreclosures

<article class="post-775874 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry" id="post-775874"><span class="entry-date">August 16, 2023</span><div class="entry-header center-block text-center"><h1 class="entry-title">Don’t Expect a Flood of Foreclosures</h1><div class="shareBlock"><div class="shareTitle">Share</div><div class="shareIcons"><a aria-label="Twitter Share Link" class="twitter solid display-inline-block" data-tracking="Post,Social Post Link Clicked,Twitter" href="http://twitter.com/share?text=Don%E2%80%99t+Expect+a+Flood+of+Foreclosures&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fgilliggroup.com%2Fblog%2Fdont-expect-a-flood-of-foreclosures%2F" target="_blank"><span class="force-hidden">Twitter</span></a>
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</div></div><div class="post-tax post-category"><span></span><a href="../category/realtor-blog/index.html" rel="tag">Realtor Blog</a></div><div class="post-tax post-post_tag"></div></div><div class="entry-content"><div><img alt="Don’t Expect a Flood of Foreclosures Simplifying The Market" decoding="async" loading="lazy" src="https://media.agentaprd.com/sites/222/20230816-dont-expect-a-flood-of-foreclosures.webp" style="display: block; margin-bottom: 5px; clear: both; max-width: 100%;" width="358"/>
<p>The rising cost of just about everything from groceries to gas right now is leading to speculation that more people won’t be able to afford their mortgage payments. And that’s creating concern that a lot of foreclosures are on the horizon. While it’s true that <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2023/07/24/foreclosure-numbers-today-arent-like-2008/?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">foreclosure filings</a> have gone up a bit compared to last year, experts say a flood of foreclosures isn’t coming.</p>
<p>Take it from Bill McBride of <em>Calculated Risk</em>. McBride is an expert on the housing market, and after closely following the data and market environment leading up to the crash, he was able to see the foreclosures coming in 2008. With the same careful eye and analysis, he has a different <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fannie-and-freddie-single-family" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">take</a> on what’s ahead in the current market:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>“</em><strong><em>There will not be a foreclosure crisis this time.</em></strong><em>”</em></p></blockquote>
<p>Let’s look at why another flood is so unlikely.</p>
<h4><strong>There Aren’t Many Homeowners Who Are Seriously Behind on Their Mortgage Payments</strong></h4>
<p>One of the main reasons there were so many foreclosures during the last housing crash was because relaxed lending standards made it easy for people to take out mortgages, even if they couldn’t show that they’d be able to pay them back. At that time, lenders weren’t being very strict when assessing applicant credit scores, income levels, employment status, and debt-to-income ratio.</p>
<p>But now, lending standards have tightened, leading to more qualified buyers who can afford to make their mortgage payments. And <a href="https://www.freddiemac.com/investors/financials/pdf/0523mvs.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">data</a> from <a href="https://www.freddiemac.com/investors/financials/pdf/0623mvs.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><em>Freddie Mac</em></a> and <a href="https://www.fanniemae.com/media/48496/display" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><em>Fannie Mae</em></a> shows the number of homeowners who are seriously behind on their mortgage payments is declining (<em>see graph below</em>):</p>
<p><a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/content/images/20230814/20230816-Serious-Delinquencies-on-a-decline.png?a=712984-fa409495d5d70154d03a25e81e9540e2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img decoding="async" src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/content/images/20230814/20230816-Serious-Delinquencies-on-a-decline.png"/></a>Molly Boese, Principal Economist at <em>CoreLogic</em>, <a href="https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/loan-performance-insights-july-2023/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">explains</a> just how few homeowners are struggling to make their mortgage payments:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>“</em><strong><em>May’s overall mortgage delinquency rate matched the all-time low, and serious delinquencies followed suit. </em></strong><em>Furthermore, the rate of mortgages that were six months or more past due, a measure that ballooned in 2021, has receded to a level last observed in March 2020.”</em></p></blockquote>
<p>Before there can be a significant rise in foreclosures, the number of people who can’t make their mortgage payments would need to rise. Since so many buyers are making their payments today, a wave of foreclosures isn’t likely.</p>
<h3>Bottom Line</h3>
<p>If you’re worried about a potential flood of foreclosures, know there’s nothing in the data today to suggest that’ll happen. In fact, qualified buyers are making their mortgage payments at a very high rate.</p>
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